Recruitment Suspension Decider

Forecast cap-fill probability and decide whether a suspension request is worth making.

Course

Where things stand now

Weeks until course start

Applications received

Offers made

Firms accepted

Expected ICP transfers

Expected Foundation transfers

Intake month

Academic year

Conversion ratios and post-enrolment withdrawal come from the course profile (you enter these from PowerBI).

Recommendation

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Final enrolment forecast

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How the forecast breaks down

Each line takes a group of applicants at a different stage of the pipeline and multiplies it by the chance that group ends up enrolled. The counts come from the figures you entered above; the percentages come from the course profile.

How a suspension request is weighed

These thresholds tune how the tool judges whether a suspension request is justified. Calibrate them against real outcomes over time.

Safety buffer above cap

Over-enrolment is a concern. Probability is measured against cap × (1 + buffer), not the cap itself.

This is separate from expected withdrawals. The forecast already takes off each course's typical withdrawals before it is compared with the cap, so a course can enrol above cap by its expected withdrawals without triggering a recommendation. The buffer is extra headroom on top of that. Set it to 0 if going over cap by expected withdrawals is all that should be allowed.

(e.g. 0.05 = 5% above cap)

Submit-zone threshold

Minimum P(overshoot) at which the tool recommends submitting the request.

(e.g. 0.70 = 70%)

Marginal-zone threshold

Between this and the submit threshold, the tool flags the situation as borderline.

(e.g. 0.40 = 40%)

Late-cycle cutoff (weeks)

Inside this window before start, the tool will recommend against asking — too late for suspension to be meaningful.

weeks

Uncertainty amplifier (early cycle)

How much extra forecast spread is applied when little of the application curve has played out yet. Higher = more sceptical of early-cycle predictions.

(default 1.5)

Curve completion for full confidence

Below this fraction of the application curve, the recommendation is discounted proportionally. Stops the tool from confidently recommending a suspension on flimsy early-cycle data.

(default 0.40 = 40%)

Key decision dates

Dates by which a suspension decision needs to be made. The next date for the chosen intake is shown on the Predict screen. Course start dates are set separately, on each course profile.

Date	Intake	What is due

Recruitment Suspension Decider

Recruitment Suspension Decider

Where things stand now

Ask the ADS to decide

Final enrolment forecast

How the forecast breaks down

Recruitment suspension email draft

Courses

How a suspension request is weighed

Key decision dates